JUN 2026, XETR:HFG
HelloFresh: Betting Against a Second Half That Isn't Coming
HelloFresh guided 2026 to a revenue decline of just 3-6%, yet Q1 printed -7.7% cc (meal kits -8.5%) and Q2 is guided 'roughly in line'. The math forces H2 to run near flat after 6 straight quarters of decline, promised on €62M less quarterly marketing. Meanwhile S&P cut the credit to junk in April, Stifel went to Sell, the active customers KPI stays retired, and the only search trend still growing around the brand is 'cancel hellofresh'. The catch: shorts are crowding in and insiders, accused by Grizzly of trading well around bad news, are now net buyers. It is either the second-half recovery a plan or just a guidance sentence waiting for mid-August.
Entered29 Jun 2026Exited14 Aug 2026P&L+18.9%
Read the report ↗JUN 2026, NYSE:RDW
Redwire Corp: A Rally Rented from Someone Else's IPO
Redwire rode the SpaceX IPO wave to a 223% YTD gain, EV/sales inflating from 3.8x to 8.8x on zero estimate revisions. Meanwhile PE sponsor AE Industrial cut its stake from ~84M to ~21M shares in five months, capping it off May 20 by converting preferred at $3.05 and dumping 15.2M shares the same day at $13 to 15.80, roughly $670M of insider sales in a quarter, zero buys. Share count already up 232% since debut, cash burning, KPMG flagging internal controls. When SPCX lists June 12, who still needs the proxy ?
Entered2 Jun 2026Exited14 Jul 2026P&L+34.1%
Read the report ↗MAY 2026, STO:CAST
Castellum AB: Macro-Micro Feedback Loop
Weak leasing and slow occupancy recovery leave Castellum contending with a multi-year refinancing wall and structural office oversupply, at a time when Swedish rates are relatively elevated. Although the balance sheet currently avoids covenant breaches, rolling SEK 10.6bn of 2026 maturities at higher spreads, combined with fragile property valuations, makes equity upside limited and downside risk tied to Riksbank policy, disposal economics, and persistent office weakness; the SEK 1.7bn buyback offers limited comfort at current valuations.
Entered14 May 2026ExitedN/AP&L0.0%
Read the report ↗APRIL 2026, XETR:BOSS
Hugo Boss: Resetting the Brand at the Worst Possible Point in the Cycle
After an aggressive brand revamp that failed to translate into durable top‑line momentum, Hugo Boss now faces a self‑inflicted earnings air pocket just as discretionary spending weakens, with management guiding for a mid‑ to high‑single‑digit sales decline and a clear step down in EBIT in 2026 while slashing the dividend by 97% to the legal minimum; although the balance sheet itself is not distressed, this strategic “reset” pushes meaningful profit recovery out to 2027 and leaves the equity highly exposed to any further deterioration in premium‑apparel demand, execution slip‑ups in channel and pricing mix, or renewed ESG scrutiny around labour and sourcing practices that could further compress multiples at a time when investors are already rotating away from mid‑tier fashion risk.
Entered8 Apr 2026Exited1 Jun 2026P&L+2.6%
Read the report ↗MARCH 2026, XETR:PBB
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank: The High Price of Portfolio Cleanup
After definitively exiting the US market, where a concentrated share of NPLs had been weighing on the portfolio, pbb's balance sheet absorbed substantial losses in 2025, with a net loss of roughly €280-290 million driven by around €400 million in loan loss provisions and US exit‑related charges; despite management's more constructive tone, the 2026 pre‑tax profit guidance of only about €30-40 million is extremely thin relative to both recent losses and the bank's balance sheet size, leaving earnings highly vulnerable to even modest additional credit deterioration, weaker collateral values in commercial real estate, or small execution and funding shocks.
Entered5 Mar 2026Exited06 May 2026P&L+7.8%
Read the report ↗FEBRUARY 2026, ETHEUR
Ethereum's Fusaka Update: Cheaper Gas, Dirtier Chain
Ethereum's December 2025 Fusaka upgrade delivered its promise: L1 gas limit jumped from 45M to 60M units, slashing transaction costs and boosting throughput for DeFi, NFTs, and L2s. Daily transactions rose ~50%, active addresses ~60-78%. But here's the catch: address poisoning attacks tripled post-upgrade, with Etherscan flagging dust sends (USDT/USDC < $0.01) exploding 612% and comprising 10-15% of txns, 25-35% of addresses. Is 'growth' just bots poisoning wallets at scale ?
Entered10 Feb 2026Exited7 Jun 2026P&L+13.3%
Read the report ↗